Thursday, October 16, 2008

Born in the E.S.L.R.

Today, Evergreen Solar (ESLR) released earnings for Q3 that were slightly lower than The Street had estimated.  They attributed this to the declining value of the dollar vs. the Euro (50% of sales were in Europe last quarter), as well as to their link to Lehman brothers (for more info on that, google LEH ESLR capped call transaction - and wake up..).  What is interesting about the LEH connection is that when LEH declared bankruptcy, and Barclays bought it out, Barclays also purchased 12 million shares of ESLR stock that ESLR didn't even know still was in LEH's possession!  

The light at the end of the tunnel?  ESLR is entering legal proceedings demanding that Barclay's either returns the 12 million shares to ESLR, or formally agrees to be 100% responsible for the repayment of those shares to ESLR per the terms of the original agreement with LEH - BOTH of those outcomes would result in a surge in ESLR share price.  I don't see any judge thinking that what Barclays did was a legitimate deal -- and I think ESLR will be rewarded handsomely in the deal.

Another bright light?  Evergreen officers on the call today stated that they are still on track to acheive significant profitability in 2009 per their original guidance - AND - Evergreen also announced two large sales contracts today that brings their new Devans facility to 100% production capacity... so there isn't much keeping them from achieving their profitability goals as they have already reached their sales goals.  The return of the LEH shares would just be icing on the cake as they are already priced as "gone" in the current share price.

I think the biggest question next year will be - do you sell when ESLR hits $18-$20/share, or do you hold onto it for 5 years and wait for it to hit $150?

7 comments:

Money187 said...

Whether we're still holding it in five years or not, I will buy each of you a share of ESLR if it reaches $150/s at that point.

(Unlike five-year futures wagered in the kitchen of 67 McClellan Street in '03, this will one will be honored.)

Patrick Flynn said...

UH oh, maybe jL should check out FSLR and see how that stock price shot up after achieving profitability!

Money187 said...

Sidenote, in order for this offer to stand, one must have signed into this blog once before 10/31/08. That said, it's fairly safe to say that the most this audacious statement will cost me is $450.

Patrick Flynn said...

We have about a 50% ROI on our ESLR shares right now. We can ride it out, or we can cash in on a quick 50% return. Thoughts?

With an obama victory, we could see a higher price than this - but we can also expect history to repeat itself and for the stock market to re-test it's previous lows before heading back up again.

My vote is to set a sell limit around $5.75, cash in over 50% ROI, and hope it falls back down to where we can repurchase it.

Joe, you may want to motion for a similar deal on ELP, with about a 42% ROI so far as well.

Jimmy C said...

What if we sold half our stock in ESLR at $5.75 and kept the other half in hopes it rises more?

Does that make any sense or would it be better just to sell everything?

Patrick Flynn said...

I like where you're going with that, but I really think that strategy works best with a larger position than we currently have, but let's leave that up to our groupski.

mikey veech said...

i vote we take the 50% and sell all the shares, hopefully it drops back down again and we buy more..