Touch & Go

Guys good morning. Since we launched over eighteen months ago, I admit I am much more dialed into market activity on a day to day basis. Not only is it a great way to make money, but daily market fluctuation is a great indicator of the state of our nation.

Dell's numbers were released this week and "revenue was mostly lower on sales to large businesses, which tumbled 23% from a year earlier. Small- and medium-sized businesses fell 19%... About 80% of Dell's sales come from business customers." Let the dust settle over the next few weeks and pay attention to Dell ramping up marketing for the holidays. Perhaps the stock will be in better shape for our next meeting.

HNT has crept up to touch $20/s, which equates to a 30% gain in our pockets (including selling commissions). Although some of us opted to sell the stock a few months ago, there was a time where we voted unanimously to purchase it. HNT is within pennies of its 52-week high, but I am not yet comfortable selling out of it. We bought into it originally to saddle up and ride out the health care socialization movement, but I wanted to bring its progress to our attention. Keep an eye on it and share feedback, as the holidays are a crazy time to watch the stock market.

Any ideas to throw some of our money market cash into another position? Maybe grab a single share of a low-cost blue chip? Are the days gone when we proactively talk turkey throughout the quarter or are we on hiatus until a week before our next meeting?

DUDE!! I got a Dell!

My pick for 4Q 2009 is Dell (Nadaq:DELL). We all know who and what Dell is so I'll spare you the full background. My reason for the pick is a mixture of a holiday gift play, and a play on the economic recovery in 2010. With the affordability of computers and with Dell's brand name, I think there will be solid sales in 2009's holiday season that will be realized when they announce their results in January. While some may be skeptical of that, there is another reason to buy into Dell - that being their A-List of corporate clients and businesses that stand by the Dell brand for their companies. There will be a natural increase in corporate purchasing when hiring picks up in 2010, and companies will stay loyal to Dell because if you have 1000 employees using Dell laptops, you aren't going to switch the next 500 over to another brand.

Dell is now trading around the mid $14's. It is a profitable company with the best management in the industry - headed by its founder Michael Dell. and has nearly $10B cash on hand. They are currently making strategic acquisitions to broaden their portfolio of services. This is a safe tech/retail play, and with all the buzz surrounding windows 7, this seems like a good time to own some Dell!

Hello Moto

My stock pick for this final quarter of 2009 is Motorola (MOT). You may have heard of this company - they make cell phones. Say what you want about the quality of your moto of the past, I'm looking toward the future here. The smart phone war is full in effect right now and everyone is looking for the next iphone. Google launched its Android platform late last year to compete with the apple platform. As all of us know, The first few Android based phones did not fair so well because they were released on shitty carriers like sprint and t-moble. But finally Verizon has gotten into the mix and the Droid will be the first phone sold exculsively by Verizon. Motorola is a bit late getting into the game - but so far the Droid has gotten some stellar reviews. Just in time for the holiday shopping period - I think the Droid will sell. If i'm gonna bet on any two companies to put a good fight with apple - i'd take my chances on Verizon and Google.

Moto is selling right now around $9 a share - right in our wheel house. And if we get on it now, we may be able to take advantage of the holiday sales and hopefully make ourselves some money. Its a bit of a risk going in on a company that has struggled as of late to hold their market share on cell phones, but they have done some streamlining their product line in the past few years and focused their concentration on the smart phones and mobile computing. I think this investment is a good opurtunity for us to get in on a rising smart phone platform (Google) and hopefully catch Motorola on its way back up the cell phone food chain.

Looking forward to hearing everyone elses picks for this qtr. One final note - please try and send me your money tomorrow - no later than thursday so we can have the funds in place for Monday morning. See you boys on Sunday!

All Aboard!

As we look at our fourth and final round of picks in 2009, take a step back and realize that we are amidst our eighteenth month of investing and chose to launch this club at the worst time to play the market of our lives. Sure we've taken a few punches, but we have also managed to flip some holdings for profit. Throughout the process, we have stuck to a Buffet-esque "buy-hold" strategy and built a diverse portfolio valued at over $2,600 that we should all be proud of.

In an effort to touch a new sector and broaden our reach, my 4Q pick is a local company in the transportation business- Providence & Worcester Railroad Company (PWX). PWX carries automobiles, lumber, food products and an array other freight specifically throughout New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts. PWX owns the exclusive rights to conduct freight operations between New Haven, CT, and the MA/RI border and their Chairman, a Harvard law graduate, has run the company successfully since 1980. Their contracted coverage area stretches over 500 miles and the company owns 30% of the track they travel on. Some of their 100+ clients are Dow Chemical, Exxon and Frito-Lay. The stock currently trades in our wheelhouse at $11.30/s.

I am anxious to see each of your picks and to throw Jim the high cheese next weekend.

NCR has been a bad boy!

NCR missed it's earnings and today has fallen hard. Do we panic? I think not - the long term potential for growth is still there and the company isn't in risk of collapsing. I think we roll with this punch and wait for the longer term upside.
http://www.learningmarkets.com/index.php/200910226491/News-Feed/News-Feed/ncr-corp-falls-short-of-analyst-expectations-ncr-acs-csc.html

Entertainment Dynasty Forming?

I know our group has considered buying Comcast and we currently own GE. Well as we sleep, GE is working a deal with Comcast to spin of majority ownership of NBC Universal. I'll spare you the details as other TM members have likely noticed the buyout rumors, but this could impact our position in GE. If the deal goes, expect a 5-7% increase in our GE value. Certainly not enough to warrant a sale, as we are still underwater from our purchase price. But the deal could give GE capitol to spend elsewhere. Details to follow....

Also, have we set a location for the 10/25 meeting? The 'Ville?

Yipeeee!

Yahoo up 5% today kids. Let's get it!

Bueller....? Bueller....?

Can we try and set up a meeting before the new year? I have suggested a conference call numerous times with not a peep from anyone for or against it. Obviously its damn near impossible to meet in person as we have seen from the last 2 months trying to plan a meeting. A conference call meeting is better than no meeting. So what does everyone think? Can we do it?

I am available Saturday morning, Sunday morning or night, Monday night, Tues night? Do any of those times work for people?

Conference call ...? Bueller??

can we meet this week or weekend?

hey guys, can we meet this week? i am free tues, weds, friday or sat, or sunday late morning. I know everyone has things going on and its last minute, but I thought I'd see if we can work anything out? your thoughts?

Don't pick on the fat kid...

My pick for this qtr is Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN). Like Joe, i took a look at our portfolio and tried a to pick a stock that was in a different sector than what we already have. I settled on AMLN because of the type of drugs they manufacturer and the amount they currently have on the market. These guys focus almost all of their resources on the treatment of obesity and diabetes in the US. Which as anyone will tell you, is a growing problem in the US. The market for these drugs is only going to increase.

Now, normally i don't like to pick a stock that i know very little about the industry, but we already have GE and CX in our profile, which are more my bag.

These guys sell "BYETTA (exenatide) injection and SYMLIN (pramlintide acetate) injection for the treatment of patients with Type II diabetes. The company also has research and development programs in the therapeutic areas of diabetes and obesity."

They have 2 approved drugs and various other drugs in mutiple stages of approval. They seem to have money in the bank as well.

Even if its too early to pull the trigger on a pharmie, i at least want to get the discussion rolling about them and see what all of your thoughts are regarding drug companies.

meeting this week?

Do we have a meeting day that works for everyone this week? Looks like weds is a no-go? Saturday maybe? Ill be at the sox game sunday, anyone want to pick up a few tixs and bring the ladies?

NCR

My pick this quarter is NCR corporation.

NCR makes ATM's and the self service check out machines that are in most stores now.

But its there newst venture that caught my attention. DVD vending kiosks. They have formed an alliance with Blockbuster to set up Blockbuster name brand vending DVD kiosks.

Analysts are projecting DVD vending kiosks could grow by more than 60 percent over the next three years, increasing from 9,300 units at the end of 2007 to more than 22,400 by the end of 2010. Additionally, consumer spending on movies from vending machines during that same period is expected to grow from $197 million to more than $760 million.

I think that this is stock we could get at a good price right now ($11.00 range) hold on to it for some time and hopefully make some money.

I have a problem with Monday night (sorry guys)...

Sorry to have to say this, but I am scheduled to work on monday night. I requested for the night off and i was told its only a request. I am trying to find someone to work for me, but its difficult bc a few people are on vacation and we are short staffed. Is there any way we can do tues, weds or thurs? let me know.

Oh, p.s. My phone is dead, it got wet some how at work last night so you can text me at 508.414.1970 if need be or email me and i will try and check it more. im going to verizon on monday...

Do You...

Take a look at our portfolio and we have holdings in most major categories; capital goods (CX), technology (EMC), conglomerates (GE), financial (BAC) and health care (HNT). We've done a good job spreading out our investments and it makes sense to continue such a practice, at least until our lineup is large enough to support sector duplication.

As much as I would love to motion for an energy stock, the heavy hitters are out of our price range. I opted to look in the services sector, or industries that sell a good that you can't physically wrap your hands around. My choice is a brand with a presence in over 30 countries, is used by millions of Americans each and every day and is a powerhouse in online advertising- Yahoo! Inc (YHOO).

For better or worse, when the economic climate is challenging, businesses cut their ad budget to conserve operating costs. Yahoo! has tremendous penetration and has managed to generate substantial income despite the current financial climate. As I'll explain live, an online ad campaign is simple to roll out and is far more cost effective than television, radio or outdoor. An advantage to strong service companies is their cost to do business- Yahoo! has its infrastructure in place and doesn't have the cost of warehousing inventory or coordinating shipping. A statistic closer to home- Yahoo! Sports has more daily viewers than ESPN.com. As long as Yahoo! keeps putting food in the spoon, anxious web browsers are standing by with their mouths open.

The biggest upside to Yahoo! is it's buyout potential. In search engines, there is Google and there's everyone else. Yahoo! is affordable enough for another search or software company to scoop up and pool assets to carve out market share with Google. Such an occurrence would be great for shareholders, but certainly isn't my primary reason for selecting the company.

I look forward to hearing your picks and feedback.

Ryan's Q3 Pick- Alcoa- AA

My selection is Alcoa Inc. I think this will help us spread out our portfolio a bit. Alcoa is engaged in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum, and alumina combined. It's products are used worldwide in aircraft, automobiles, commercial transportation, packaging, building and construction, oil and gas, defense, and industrial applications. Alcoa is a global company operating in 35 countries. North America and Europe generated 54% and 26%, respectively, of Alcoa’s sales during the year ended December 31, 2008. Their main product is a special light weight titanium that has the strength of much heavier titanium. this will be useful with the automobile industry. With many products in all these industries, I feel this is more of a safe play and long term stock. I would say we buy in the range of $9.80 to $10.20 and hang onto to it until it reaches the $25.00 range, which should be at least 2 years. before the fall of the market it was cosistantly traded in this range for quite a few years. pretty consistent....

That's Comcastic! Patrick's Q3 2009 pick

My pick for Q3 2009 is Comcast (Nasdaq:CMCSA.)

I'm willing to bet 4 out of the 5 of us have comcast in our homes, and I'd also say that if I had the option to have it in mine I would cancel DirecTV and install Comcast tomorrow morning. Having used both services I can see the benefits of both - but the bottom line is that Comcast provides a better value, faster product, and better services. Don't get me wrong, I love having the NFL Sunday Ticket for a few months a year - but at the end of the day I'd be just as happy with every Patriots game and the NFL network.

CMCSA is currently trading around $14.50/share. It's down about 14-15% this year, and I think it's a bargain to get in and ride the economic wave upwards back to it's previous highs. It is a profitable company with cash in the bank, a strong brand name - and a rather cocky outlook about it's future (they just inked a 5 year deal to allow Verizon FIOS to advertise on their networks.. not to mention the constant DirecTV ads they play). I think what that shows is they know the value of their product, and realize a few may leave to FIOS and DirecTV, but the advertising revenues they receive will far offset the lost subscriber revenues.

I'm also predicting some strong earnings from Comcast with their new basic cable programming aimed at capturing the US population who currently uses antennas to receive free over the air programming. With the new digital switch, Comcast now offers a cable package starting at $10/month aimed at capturing "over-the-air" viewers and swaying them to become cable subscribers. Comcast estimates there are over 2Million such viewers in the US. In all, Comcast has 24.6 million cable subscribers, 14.4 million high-speed Internet customers and 5.6 million voice customers. Based on these facts I place CMCSA into a "moderately safe" category with an upside potential for 20-30% gains in 12 months.

Looking forward to seeing everyone's picks.. I just wired my $$$$ to the bank account.

Q3 Meeting

Hey guys, I wanted to throw out some dates for our next meeting... how about June 27th/28th or July 11th/12th? I also will volunteer my place for the meeting, but will go wherever the group decides is most convenient.

I'm available on any four of the dates above as of now, but a Saturday is best for me.
Patrick

Lending 101

This is a great example of the importance of lending and why this economic rut is relying on reopening lines of credit for consumers and business owners. Although basic, borrowing is an essential resource to maintaining inventory, funding payroll and investing in growth opportunities.

It is August. In a small town on the South Coast of France, holiday season is in full swing, but it is raining so there is not too much business happening. Everyone is heavily in debt.

Luckily, a rich Russian tourist arrives in the foyer of the small local hotel. He asks for a room and puts a 100 Euro note on the reception counter, takes a key and goes to inspect the room located up the stairs on the third floor.

The hotel owner takes the banknote in hurry and rushes to his meat supplier to whom he owes €100.

The butcher takes the money and races to his wholesale supplier to pay his debt.

The wholesaler rushes to the farmer to pay €100 for pigs he purchased some time ago.

The farmer triumphantly gives the €100 note to a local prostitute who gave him her services on credit.

The prostitute goes quickly to the hotel, as she owed the hotel for her hourly room use to entertain clients, and lays the €100 on the counter.

At that moment, the rich Russian is coming down to reception and informs the hotel owner that the proposed room is unsatisfactory and takes his €100 back and departs.

There was no profit or income. But everyone no longer has any debt and the small town people look optimistically towards their future.

SELL BAC

fellas, BAC closed today at 11.30.

That means we can sell for a 6% profit right now.

JK!

Patrick

sometimes the best thing to do is sell..

We made a good move selling our position in ESLR. Yesterday they announced they were going to need to raise 60M in cash to fund operations and new startups. We avoided taking a larger hit by holding onto the stock, but as a speculative play we can look at picking up more shares at a discount if the stock continues to decline closer to the $1.20 range.

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=AP&date=20090520&id=9921375

getting BACk in the game

Ok fellas, BAC has dropped over 20% this week alone. I wanted to get a poll going with perhaps 4 different options.. obviously you can choose your own option as well but here are my thoughts.'

A) Set Buy price of 10.57/share of 48 shares of BAC, essentially pocketing our profit and being back where we started.
B) Set Buy Price of $10.57/share for 24 shares of BAC, and then watching it to see if it falls further so we can average our costs down on the next 24 shares of BAC.
C) Wait till BAC drops another 10% (putting it around $10/share) till we make our next purchasing decision to see if it will continue dropping.
D) Set Buy price at current market rates in order to "get back into the game" and not miss the boat. Doing this will essentially pocket some profits from our sale at $11.80 and at the same time regain our 48 shares for about $40 less than we sold them for a week ago.
E) Your own thoughts.

I will hold back my opinion until after we hear some votes..

F it.

Guys, today I wanted to bring to everyones attention a solid stock that will benefit from other automakers going under. They are innovative and are turning out to be one of the most solidly run companies in its sector. Ford is also raising capital today by selling additional stock, which is going to drive the cost back down into the $5's. They are releasing a new feature this year called "myKey" that will allow parents to regulate MPH and also other features like preventing the stereo's to be turned on when their seatbelts aren't on. I for one would buy a Ford for my kid if they were the company with that feature.

I think everyone should take a peek at F today and I look forward to other peoples comments on this before we perhaps take it to a vote later today.

Our good friend ACUS

should we consider picking it up again?

http://www.pr-inside.com/fda-watchlist-acus-r1241907.htm
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/2319443/

It is trading on the market again and the deadline for the FDA approval is 5/31.

History is on our side...

My friends,
Selling BAC at $11.80 wasn't the best move, seeing as how it has still climbed. It also wasn't the worst thing we could have done, as it was a profitable move and an educated decision based on facts. Every financial analyst is baffled by what's happening right now and agrees that you should take profits and wait to rebuy. We just happened to have sold our position before it peaked, but that's nothing to be ashamed of. It happens all the time - if we could predict peak prices we'd all be quitting our day jobs. Anyone that says they knew BAC would rise 30% on news they'd need to raise new capital is lying - because every expert said to sell on the news.

However we still have to be steadfast with our decision. The fact is that we haven't missed out on anything just yet - history shows that bear market rally's (which is what we're in now) last about 8 weeks. They then drop off again. This rally isn't sustainable, people are buying into the market now panicking and thinking that this is the time to "get in". We should still expect BAC to retrace back to the $9-$10/range. Don't believe me? If you'll all remember back when we first bought BAC we thought it was a steal at $13/share. Then it was a steal at $12, then $10 - etc etc, eventually BAC hit lows of $6. Will we hit those lows again - doubtful, will we fall below $10, I think so. We have a company here with a market cap of under $100B that needs to raise $36B in the next 6 months. Every analyst agrees that this will absoultely dilute common shareholders stocks - it's just a matter of when.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30607907

Stay strong, don't let things get you down. Sure, BAC hit $15 today - but no one would have predicted that, and even if we did, we probably would have sold our position before it hit $15 anyways.

BAC..

I have to make one more formal plea to take our profits on BAC as it for some odd reason is trading up to 11.80 right now, despite this report from WSJ saying they'll need to raise $35B.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124158058615290821.html#mod=testMod

the stock traded down 10% after hours based on this report but has since shot up 7%. We can now for sure cash in some profits. Every single report says they'll owe money - so it's up to you guys, do you believe Ken Lewis, or the WSJ and every other major reporting agency?

I wouldn't be doing my job as prez if I didn't bring this to the table, again.

Oh My God! They Killed Kenny!

So Ken Lewis remains the CEO, but is out as Bank Of America Chairman. Will BAC dip a bit? Perhaps. I'm anticipating that the stock rebounds and creeps up, as this is a decision that the shareholders made to benefit their (er, our) position. Keep 'em crossed!

SafetyNET?

Josabi, many investors put a strict stop-loss on their investments at around 10%. Do you have any insight as to why HealthNet has dropped 15% in the last 30 days? Is it cause for concern, should we be worried, or is it just normal volatility with this stock?

Did You Say "Buy?"

Quietly loading their guns is our conservative pillar of American commerce, GE. Although we have no money in our account, consider eyeballing them leading up to our next meeting to see if reupping makes sense. Or perhaps, we can just buy a box of toothpicks, which won't lose value year over year.

DPZ 6% Returns

I know the cash value isn't much, but we can lock in 6% returns on DPZ today after paying commissions. We can always reload on a dip, but at the end of the day 14 shares isn't going to make us rich anyways.

Thoughts?

Calling All Cars

It may be cool to catch the HealthNet Inc. conference call next month. I know Patrick has sat in on them before, but it sheds an interesting light on the direction the company is heading.

Since our group has crossed into the 4-digit threshold, it's important that we learn more and more about this process as our purse grows to the next landmark, $5k!

http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20090407005266&newsLang=en

"Domi-hogs this is Mikey!"

I can see it now... running the show like a Saturday night at DP Dough in '01!

What a great way offer an incentive to savvy businessmen who may find themselves laid off in the current job environment. HOT CHEESE UP FRONT!

http://sev.prnewswire.com/restaurants/20090407/DE9562007042009-1.html

In Your Facebook!

Hey is it too late to change my pick? I'll tag myself in this, write it on my wall and stick this bad boy in my profile!

In all seriousness, I anticipate this debuts WAY overpriced, the investors short it and day traders and regular users who think it's a great idea get stuck holding their mouses like (Rizzi) Blackstone.

Thoughts? Anticipated day one closing share value?

Short Bus with AMEX & CAT

I have to choices also, and its quite odd that just like JC, I like Caterpillar even though it is out of our suggested range. I think we can definitely make money on the short term and probably the long term too. I dont see the stock rising in to the 100.00's, but we can buy below thirty and sell near fifty. I agree with much of what JC said, including that CAT will not go under. the construction plan that Obama has financed, I think they are in for a decent growth, as the industry as a whole should start to pick back up. By going with the best name in earth moving and combine that with Obama's plan to dump money into that industry in particular, CAT has seen its low point. I think we should buy right under 30 and sell at 50. I know, its out of the range we discussed, but the stock is up over the past 30 days, as low as 22.00 and as high as about 31.00

AXP-I know we are already into the finicials, but this sector is set to make a comeback before most other industries out there, so why not jump on the short bus for a few stops to pick up some coin? This is a short term stock also. It has been as low as 9.75 and as high as 52.00ish. Sitting at 14.00 right now, we stand a decent chance to make good short term money on a stock that hasnt been under 10.00 since the mid 90's. Unlike other, credit card companys most of AMEX's customers have very solid credit ratings, thus they are less likely to loan to bad creditors resulting in less risky investments. However, those who do default on their AMEX, do typically have large balances, not 250 or 500. So taking a hit, could still hurt the company. since most customers have great credit, they are more likely to not file bankrupcy or never attempt to pay the balance off because they dont care about their credit. Since AMEX is tied into many large business, unlike other cards out there, they are going to get paid on time with money that has already been budgeted. I think we should wait for the stock to dip to the 12-13 range before picking it up and sell it in the 30's. i have no doubt that this stock will surpass the 30's, but i think we should dump it before then and go for the sure profit.

thunder CATs HOOO!!!!

What's up fellas? Sorry about the late pick - i almost forgot the deadline.... I actually have two picks... The first pick does not quite fit into our price range of 15 - 20 per share, but i think its a good buy at the price its at. Caterpillar Inc. is trading right now around $29. This stock has been up as high as $85 this year (low of 21). The down world economy is the primary reason for CAT being so low right now. Construction projects are at a low point right now, but its not going to last. It won't be intimidate, but eventually construction is going to pick up, not just nationally but globally as well. CAT is the biggest supplier of construction equipment in the world - this is not company that is going to go bankrupt. This a stock that is not going to make us money in the short term, but will make us money in the long term. I know its kinda high priced, but we do have some extra coin in the money market. I have more to say about this that my sway you, but to save email space, i will refrain until our meeting.

If the price of CAT scares u guys, i have second pick as well. Symantec - as you guys probably know, symantec makes anti-virus software. They are trading at 15.30 right now - lower than their compediter McAfree which is up in the 30s. The reason i feel they may be able to make us some money is the rise in computer fraud and viruses that may come through as a result of a down ecomony. People loose their jobs and computer fruad increases. People are desprate - they will try anything to make a buck (phishing scams, spam, viruses, identity theft etc.). The need for anti virus software for major companies is going to be greater and greater. These guys are top notch. I think their stock will rise in the comming year.

In closing, don't sleep on AFLAC - its trading at 18.75 right now. With the rising price of healthcare and the decreasing bennifits, more people are going to turn to these guys for extra coverage. Unless your in the union, your company's health care package has probably taken a hit due to increased costs and premiums. Aflac is cheap option for people to get some extra money if they get hurt.

Thats it - i'm out. I'll see u all on Sunday. Think these over and i'll field any questions u might have.

DON'T FORGET - MONEY IS DUE EOB TOMORROW.

-j crilla

Blue Balls

whats up fellas. My pick for this quarter is Jetblue, JBLU. It is trading at $3.64 right now. Obviously the airlines have taken a hit with the economy, but we all know they will bounce back. From what I have read, Jetblue is one of the most solid run airlines out there. We can get it at a really great price right. Check it out and let me know what you think. I am hitting the sack, and then going to bed. holla

ConAgra Foods - Patrick's Pick for Q2 2009

My pick for Q209 is ConAgra Foods (http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:CAG). ConAgra produces many brand name foods that you probably have bought before, like Chef Boyardee, Healthy Choice Meals, Davids Sunflower Seeds, Hunts Tomatoes, Egg Beaters, Marie Callendars Meals, Orville Redenbacher's, Pam, Slim Jim, etc. In addition to the above they also produce some items that are more popular in certain demographics - like Hebrew National Franks, a favorite of our jewish brothers, and Reddi Whip Whipped Cream - a favorite of (both for doing "whip-it's" and to make whipped cream sundaes on Weygands nuts!). As you can see they produce some very popular brands, and it's my belief that they are strong enough brands that people will continue to purchase even during a recession - they aren't overpriced, and they provide value. In addition I believe with the baseball season among us we'll see an increase in certain items above being bought in bulk for the next 6 months, which could help boost earnings. (by the way the above list was not at all an all-inclusive list, just popular names. They also produce brands like snack pack, swiss miss - the list goes on and on.)

CAG has stayed relatively consistent over the first quarter - up about 1.4% so far. The company is profitable and isn't in risk of bankruptcy - so I consider it safe play with little volatility. Currently trading around $16.70, my recommendation would be to buy on the next dip to around $15.50-$16/share. Looking at the past few months I hope we can achieve this buy target within the next couple weeks- but there's one thing we all should have learned by now.. patience.

I look forward to reading everyone's picks - Mr. Treasurer, you have my dues.

Bend Over- This Will Only Take A Minute

Guys good evening. When selecting a company, I began with an industry in the national spotlight. While some may consider health care investment a risky venture, I carefully selected a company that doesn't just focus on health plan services, but also facilitates government contracts.

In addition to the HMO and PPO plans that people like us are offered through our employers, Health Net, Inc., also administers coverage through Medicare, Medicaid and the VA. By integrating revenue streams into government programs, they are setting themselves up to succeed when Barry eventually gets to adjusting and tweaking America's health care system.

Health broker's require state-specific licenses and Health Net, Inc., can operate in all fifty. They bind coverage for 6.9 million clients. They have over 9,000 employees and they generated $15.4b in annual revenue last year.

Health Net, Inc. is trading at $14.32/s, nearly half of it's yearly high, and they just beat their 4Q estimates. I'm not going to propose fund allocation without hearing everyone's picks, but this is an established company servicing the private sector while providing aid to those needing government aid, which is guaranteed money.

Looking forward to hearing from you guys tonight and reupping this weekend.

VMware will be our life raft

I know we invensted in EMC knowing VMware was there hot new product, but its a solid choice I think about everyday. Great choice! With 10Gig ethernet cords becoming more affordable, Fiber Channel Storage Area Network will slowly die out. Fiber Channel networking is the cash cow for my large companines, like EMC. With a familiar IP protcol, support is almost not necessary, and this is where FC really rakes in the cash for a company, support revenue. So, EMC can fall back on VMware, and so can we. The good news is that FC will still be dominat for more for than a few years, but it wont be to long that 10GigE is food stamp affordable. Just something to think about....

Swing And A High Fly Ball To Left Field! If It's Fair, It's Gone....

BAC was drowning before being dragged ashore and rescued (please note that the :55-:58 mark is dedicated Cheech).

I close my eyes and see a tanned, almost Latin-looking Mikey Veech performing CPR on a bank that was left for dead, but seems to be brought back to life with CPR. Are the non-believers ready to come to the bright side or is the verdict still out?

Blizzzzzardddd

Big insider sale of 2M worth of ATVI stock.. 

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10470563/1/insider-sells-34m-of-equity-residential.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN

CNBC You In The Shower

If you don't watch Jon Stewart (shalom), you're missing out.

I'm a CNN guy. I'm on the Lou Dobbs bandwagon and CNN is my preferred source for news. A few posts back, we touched on the source of news and understanding that the media is spinning stories to cater to a specific angle.

Click here for a great eight minute rant, with proof, from J-Stew as to why CNBC is a fraud.

ESLR productivity

Stocks have taken a beating, but this release shows that ESLR is top of the pack amongst over 10 competitors in the industry.  Read more by clicking here.

Pick Six!

Gents good evening. Step one, it seems, is for each of us to fling out our picks. Then, I guess we'll take the pieces that we like back to our drawing board, formulate the perfect mix of this and that and then mash them together in a buying effort.



The slice of the pie I suggest we bite into is an East Coast powerhouse in their sector. They have a presence in nearly every community from Manchester to Miami and sell products that we all use. The company, however, is in turmoil. Their shares have fallen over 90% this year, lowlighted by a 35% dip in just the last three months. They have over 5,000 locations and 60,000 employees, but they fell below analysts expectations for yet another quarter. I present you, Rite Aid (RAD).

Without going too wild on this forum, I think Rite Aid is a nice little play for even $12.50. That will grab us 50 shares. It's a risky stock, but we can afford to roll the dice for such little cash down. In a perfect world, a major player (CVS, Walgreens, Longs, etc.) scoops up the company, rewards the remaining shareholders with cash or with shares (ie- Countrywide to BAC) and we win. Worst case, we're out a week's worth of coffee money.

Looking forward to the moves you guys want to make and we'll touch the plate this weekend.

3.5Q Meeting

SO we've agreed to contribute another $25/ea to the fund. Is it fair to place a deadline of Saturday at noon? I know Veech said he's going to CT this Saturday. What are your thoughts on a Thursday night conference call to allocate our $125? This way, we can submit our action plan by Wednesday night? All too soon?

If you are going to diagree, please present an alternative. Would picks on Wednesday (Thursday meeting) make more sense than picks on Thursday (Saturday meeting)? By picks, we don't just mean BAC or GM, but an action plan- a percentage allocation. But remember we tweaked our contribution percentages last time.

We all motioned to make these contributions so make sure you get the money to Jim before our meeting. It is the contract that we all agreed on. Let's figure out a time line over the next 24 hours so we can be best prepared to put our cash to work.

additional fees

im in for the extra 25 too. Im not sure how we should spend it just yet, but im in for adding to our portfolio....

"So You're Saying There's A Chance?"

My man! Jason Schwarz gives us eight solid reasons why our golden child, BAC is going to see brighter days. I thought we needed this insight considering Patrick has one foot on the ledge already.

So we have two people limp in with "maybe we should by GE." Not a very compelling arguement. Can someone back this up with some juice? What's going on out there!?!? Let's make some moves and some money!

Gone Baby Gone

Cemex is dumping assets and scraping up cash. They've sold plants to a competitor, in a down market, to recoup the plunging losses they've faced with the decline in real estate construction.

In addition, all of our holdings are facing their "TML," or Theta Mutual low. Do we have any other coin stashed under the mattress to buy anything else? Let's pretend the five of us transferred another $20/ea to the Treasurer to purchase another 20 shares of BAC? Doable? Like my friend Bob Ryan said, "Eric, I bought this house in 1974 for $164,000 and people told me I was crazy. Now, it's worth $7 million. Eric, if I told you that you could buy something for $164,000 and in thirty years it would be worth $7 million, would that be something you'd be interested in?"

Anyone else have any better ideas? It's crazy to sit on the sidelines chomping Big League Chew when the real entrepreneurs are throwing every dime they have at these bargain basement deals.

What happens next in OUR world?

"Hey E - weren't you a manager at Sbarro before this?"

Sbarro has been identified as a potential bankruptcy-waiting-to-happen, and I'd say we welcome that as it could be a boost to the bottom line of many dominos pizza chains... see below.

Sbarro. (Privately owned; about 5,500 employees). It's not the pizza that's the problem. Many of this chain's 1,100 storefronts are in malls, which is a double whammy: Traffic is down, since consumers have put away their wallets. Sbarro can't really boost revenue by adding a breakfast or late-night menu, like other chains have done. And competitors like Domino's and Pizza Hut have less debt and stronger cash flow, which could intensify pressure on Sbarro as key debt payments come due in 2009.

Rastafari!

On what would be Bob Marley's 64th birthday, our ballsy move pays off. BAC is up over 30% as we speak in anticipation of the "stimulus package." The fear, however, is the bill doesn't pass and the stock dips back, so watch for shorts to try taking advantage of almost 70% profit if they bought at yesterday's low.

In other great news, things are turning around for early TM invesment, CX. I know this success is short-lived, but I'm glad we identified the opportunity yesterday and took advantage of it. After all...

"It is a dog race, it is a horse race, it is a human race- and it is a rat race." - Robert Nesta Marley

All Hands On Deck!

Gents you smell that? It's the stench of sticky icky green! No, not that green. I mean MONEY! The government is "pot committed" to Bank Of America and would not let them fall. Besides, Barry has made the economic disaster his #2 priority (besides demolishing the White House bowling alley and putting in a basketball court- true story).

Bank Of America touched their 52-week low this morning, despite receiving upwards of $40b in federal bailout money. I motion that we take money in our cash reserve account and buy up at least ten more shares. Not only will this dollar cost average our position, but it will beef up our stake in this financial giant when the dust settles on this mess.

If ya like it then ya gotta put a ring on it! I'm out like John Thain....

keep on buildin...

Here's a great article about a new array of solar panels just installed at a DuPont plant in Hawaii that will supposedly save the plant $200K/year in costs.  We need more stories like this with brand name companies jumping on the solar ship so that others follow.  This is about a $1M sale for Evergreen.  As long as the orders keep coming, they should take us to the promised land.

http://www.ecofriend.org/entry/eco-tech-dupont-installs-pv-array-at-hawaii-plant/

Say Cheeeese!

Something to keep an eye on now that we're in the fast food business... falling dairy prices could mark increased profits!  

"Cheese is the largest component of the pizza and when cheese prices come down that is a positive for our business," said Lynn Liddle, a spokeswoman for Domino's Pizza (DPZ). Liddle said that the ultimate impact will depend on whether dairy prices sustain their recent declines. "What we hope for is a sustained moderation," she said.

See Full Article here

Why It Hurts

This is a great piece as to why BAC is taking a beating and what it means to the financial sector. If you voted for us to keep BAC last Sunday, you should read the article to understand the effects our primary investment is having on the entire U.S. economy.

Everything We Touch Turns To Dirt

BAC down to $10.62/s today. WTF!

Ever since Barry Obama was elected, we've continued to decline. I'm blaming him for this mess.

Purchase tomorrow

Fellas, per our meeting today, we've decided to invest in BAC and DPZ tomorrow.  Both stocks are trading slightly up in after hours trading.  I think Jim has entered a market order for tomorrow, and what I want to know is do you guys think we should enter a limit order instead at a lower price.  I look forward to hearing everyones opinions before the market opens tomorrow.

It's the first of the monnnnttthhhhh!!

Ok - I promise this is my last stock pick for the week, but I think the opportunity is good and the timing may be right with earnings set to release in the first week of February.

My next pick up for discussion is Rent-A-Center (RCII - http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:RCII).  For obvious reasons, I have a hunch that when earnings are released we'll find that RCII will annouce higher than expected sales and earnings over the holidays, much like rival Aarons.  RCII thrives on a pay as you go, rent-to-own business model that is targeted towards lower income families with poor credit.  Where do you think they bought their 60" Flat Screen for Christmas?  

I consider this to be a moderately risky stock pick, with good potential to pay off within a month, currently trading at mid $17's, the company has positive cash flow, and cash in the bank.  I'd like to open it up for discussion with the group.

"I bought that sh*t at rent-a-center!"

Off To Never Neverland

"Well ACUS, it was great meeting you. You don't have to go home, but you can't stay here." - the boys at the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations

Mikey's Pick

My pick for this next meeting is TYCO. It is a strong global company that does bussiness all over the world. It deals in security, fire protection, valves and controls, and other industrial products. I think it is almosrt like a GE to us. It might not shoot up right away, but over time it is a strong stock to have. Here are some thoughts about the companies future:

The company is better positioned than in the past to respond to an increasingly challenging economic environment, and it has ample financial flexibility that reflects the company's substantial proportion of recurring revenue and its control over discretionary spending. Modest acquisition spending, together with proceeds from divestitures, has helped to maintain stable debt levels despite $1 billion of share repurchases in fiscal 2008.

We expect revenue and margins to decline in FY 2009, reflecting the downturn in the US construction market, declining steel prices and the appreciation of the US dollar against major international currencies. Nevertheless, we expect Tyco International’s increasing exposure in emerging economies, geographical diversity and strong order book to relatively limit the full impact of the US recession. We expect top-line and margins to recover marginally from FY 2010, given we anticipate a recovery in the US construction sector and softening of the current economic downturn.

Survey Says...

Gentlemen we've taken our shots these last two quarters, but things appear to be looking up. Although I hate Germany for obvious reasons, our fellow financial brethren have recognized the moves we've made and have identified our organization as one on the up and up.

Theta Mutual has spoken and throughout Europe, the trend seems to be catching on.

Get the door... It's Domahogs!

Fellas, fellas, fellas.  What if I told you that you could buy a share of an american legacy for less than the cost of one of their large pizzas?  Even better, what if I told you that their P/E ratio at 5 is lower than it's been in, oh say, forever???  Well get ready - because my 2nd stock pick this quarter is Dominoes Pizza (DPZ - http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:DPZ).  We're looking at a fast food staple that will be around for at least another 100 years here, it's a franchise that's expanding globally, much like McDonalds, but is much less expensive to own (perfect for the ThetaMutual budget).

Dominoes isn't settling to be just a pizza provider, they are looking to expand into other revenue sources now - and they are taking on Jarod and Subway head on.  We all know how awful Subway is, we've all been victim to a subway sub with 2 slices of turkey on it - it won't be easy, but as they grab market share from Subway they will continue adding to their profits.  If you read some of their recent advertising campaigns you'll see it's no secret who they are after - they blatantly are calling out Subway in them, going as far as to tell people to go out, buy their sub, and if they don't like it better than subway they will refund you their money.

The stock has a 52 week high of $15 and change, and in 2007 was trading in the low $30's.

I propose we look into a position this quarter of about 25% of our dues for investment into Domahogs, with a target price of $12-$13/share within the next 12 months.  I also propose that we set a buy price in the mid to low $4's, rather than buy in at it's current price in the mid $5's.

Roll It, Light It, Pass It

My preferred pick is another Brazilian company traded on the NYSE- Votorantim Celulose e Papel (VCP).

VCP harvests wood pulp from forests, sells most of the material to other businesses and uses about 20% of the remaining pulp to manufacture its own specialty paper products for purchase. VCP produces carbon paper, art surfaces and high-end stationary with their pulp product, although it only makes up a small percentage of their revenue. Last year, VCP executed an asset exchange with global power International Paper (IP), acquiring land and mature forest in exchange for an established processing plant. VCP also has stakes in financial and other material ventures, but focuses primarily on pulp processing.

On paper, VCP is attractive. It is owned in established mutual funds like the Fidelity Latin America Fund and Wall Street heartthrob American Funds New World Fund. VCP is a division of The Votorantim Group, a large business cluster throughout Latin America.

I motion that we scoop up a dozen shares, much like the ELP acquisition. VCP is uneffected by domestic economic concerns the U.S. is facing and Theta Mutual has done well in Brazil. A small investment won't break our budget and it invests us in an industry we haven't touched.

I look forward to hearing details on each of your picks and growing our portfolio on Sunday.

up up down down left right left right a b select start

What's up gents - hope everyone is fully recovered from the New Year hangover and ready to get down business on the 11th. 2008 is in the books... we've made some progress, we've made some blunders, but i think we've learned a lot in a year. I also think this coming year is going to be a great year for ThetaMutal - so lets pull ourselves out of the red and into the mutha f'n black.

My stock pick for the 1st quater is Activision Blizzard (ATVI). These guys are a video game company responsible for great games like Guitar Hero, Call of Duty, World of Warcraft etc. As of now their stock is trading at 8.75 which is real close to their 52 wk low. Analysis believe the drop in their price recently has do with a combination of Best Buy (who carry a majority of their games) predicting decreased profits next quater, Circuit City declaring bankruptsy and Nintendo Wii having a very strong holiday season. I believe this recent drop is only temporary and by picking it up now - we will be getting in on it at a great price.

The bottom line is that these guys make great video games - Guitar Hero and Call of Duty are some of the best video games i've ever played. Not to mention all the PC gamer people obsessed with Warcraft. I don't really see the market for video games dying out anytime soon and as long as these guys still keep putting out great games and keep up with technology, they should profit. This may be a stretch, but if you think of the economy the way it is, people are spending more time at home instead of going out and spending money which in turn could lead to increased sales in home entertainment, like video games and big screen tvs.

So I'm proposing we get in now while its low at $8.75 and wait for it rebound to the say the $15 range then dump it for a nice profit. Sounds easy enough...

"No sympathy for the devil; keep that in mind. Buy the ticket, take the ride...and if it occasionally gets a little heavier than what you had in mind, well...maybe chalk it off to forced conscious expansion: Tune in, freak out, get beaten."

BACk that Ass Up! - Patricks Pick for Q1 09 investment

Fellas, it's that time of the year again where we dish out picks and choose those that will go on to be ThetaMutual strongholds.  Sometimes you have to look at your own portfolio and especially in a time like this look for those with the greatest value.  Looking through our portfolio, I can't help but say that I think we need to add to our position in Bank of America (BAC).  Think about it - this is a bank that can't fail, it's recent fall in price is most likely attributed to the completion of the acquisition of Merrill Lynch - but we need to look at the glass half full... that acqusition is even more of a reason why the US would never allow BAC to fail, it's now one of the worlds largest banks - but also owns an astounding percentage of US mortgages, in addition to another one of the best brand names in banking with Merrill Lynch.

We currently don't have a strong position in BAC, and our average price I believe is around $19.  By jumping in at current prices ($14.30), we stand to average down our price significantly and be poised for even greater returns by the end of 2009.  My motion is to invest between 25-40% of our dues into BAC, with an expected target price of $29/share - a piece of cake.

Jim, just transferred my quarterly dues over to you, see you guys on Sunday - I'm sure mikey will have tons of food and drink and strippers for everyone!

"I read this article a while back, that said that Microsoft employs more millionaire secretary's that any other company in the world. They took stock options over Christmas bonuses. It was a good move. I remember there was this picture, of one of the groundskeepers next to his Ferrari. Blew my mind. you see shit like that, and it just plants seeds, makes you think its possible, even easy. And then you turn on the TV, and there's just more of it. The $87 Million lottery winner, that kid actor that just made 20 million o his last movie, that internet stock that shot through the roof, you could have made millions if you had just gotten in early, and that's exactly what I wanted to do: get in. I didn't want to be an innovator any more, i just wanted to make the quick and easy buck, i just wanted in. The Notorious BIG said it best: "Either you're slingin' crack-rock, or you've got a wicked jump-shot." Nobody wants to work for it anymore. There's no honor in taking that after school job at Mickey Dee's, honor's in the dollar, kid. So I went the white boy way of slinging crack-rock: I became a stock broker"